Florida - Early Voting Stats - Oct 22-23

[Roland99]

Oct 22

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#Election2020 #Florida #EarlyVote #MailInBallots

Summary of votes submitted in FL as of 10/22 8:27am

Dems w/a COMMANDING lead in Vote-by-Mail (+550k)
Reps w/a small lead in-person early voting (+91k)

applied a 50/40 split (Rep/Dem) for no party affiliation (was 47/43 in 2016)

I'm being more pessimistic on the split for no party affiliation voters than we saw in 2016. Even with that slightly pessimistic viewpoint, Dems could conceivably have a sizeable lead as of this morning of ~381,000 votes...so far. That's a lot of ground to makeup from in-person voting from republicans

In 2016, a total of 9,618,915 were cast. 2,758,617 were vote-by-mail and election day numbers were close to that at 2,959,085. Total early in-person votes in 2016 were 3,876,753 and about 24k provisional ballots.

FL has already blown past vote-by-mail returns this year with about 3,200,000

SOOO...ESTIMATED current split between Biden/trump is 52.9/44.0 (ignoring other candidates)!