Nunn leading in new poll

[hueymahl]

5. Not exactly

The apparently contradictory polls are interesting in part because of the underlying methodology. The one with Carter/Nunn ahead uses a combination of live polling (when calling cell phones) and IVR (when calling landlines). The one with Deal/Purdue ahead uses IVR and internet polls. Generally internet polls are less reliable, though they are improving and can often be used to make polls more accurate when used in a limited capacity in connection with traditional methods.

But here is the really interesting part - the assumptions. And the assumption that jumped out at me was the poll favorable to Deal/Purdue assumed only 26% of the electorate would be black. The poll favorable to Carter/Nunn used a number closer to the historic average - 29%.