The upcoming data will prove both of us a right.
Higher viral transmission will cause mutations, but that can be controlled, to some degree, with controlling individual transmissions among the specific groups at higher risk. Those groups critical to the first exposures of a pandemic.
These groups, which were known, from past pandemics were identified and followed closely to start estimating a herd immunity date.
Attention was applied from the beginning; elder age, underlying conditions, first respsonders, etc all need to be vaccinated first, as that is critical to reducing the earlier transmissions of the pandemic by those working in areas that affect those higher risked groups.
The general population had to be isolated, locked down, from each other to prevent a doomsday scenario. And they worked.
After a year, we should see more mutations, and we have. There are several mutations floating about, we hope to never see one that can resist everything we throw at it. That data is what give us a better probability, but it has to work with our own individual behaviors to provide everyone with the best response at the earlier possible time.
We should also be seeing, those nations, that have better controls than the US, begin to near their own 'herd immunity' markers in the next few months. We can then check their data to see if their actions are better and apply them here.
How we've educated our population, to reduce that individual, person to person, transmission is what I was initially talking about. That is where the US fails miserably.
We wear our masks at work, when shopping, but when we get home...off they come and we sit with our probable carriers. This is how most transmissions are happening. It's us and our behaviors.
Let's hope we learn how to better react when a viral this bad is initially found than we did following Trump and his anti-masking disaster.
= new reply since forum marked as read