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Last edited Sun Jul 13, 2025, 10:46 PM - Edit history (1)
A case study: Dunkelflaute events in Northern Europe on 5-7 November and 11-12 December 2024
The recent Dunkelflaute occurrences in Northern Europe on 5-7 November and 11-12 December 2024 provide relevant case studies for understanding how well- interconnected markets with sufficient dispatchable capacity allow for a resilient system under the corresponding market price signals, even when such events affect a wider region.
Day-ahead electricity prices in Germany and parts of the Nordic countries exceeded EUR 900/MWh in a single hour on 12 December after sunset, although prices were already high during daytime, averaging around EUR 500/MWh between 07:00-15:00. Solar PV generation is typically lower during the winter season in Northern Europe, and this day was not particularly different. The solar PV capacity factor for the whole day was an estimated 0.7%, compared to the December average of 1% for the 2019-2023 period. By contrast, output from wind was substantially below its seasonal average and a temporary wind drought was observed. The average capacity factor of wind generation was 2% on this day, compared to the December average of 26% over the period 2019-2023. The day before, 11 December, had also recorded very low wind output at an average capacity factor of 3%, with prices exceeding EUR 400/MWh around 16:00-17:00.
A precursor to 12 December was on 5-7 November, when wind power generation in Germany and neighbouring countries was also very limited. The average capacity factor of wind generation in Germany was 6% on 5 November, fell to as low as 0.5% on 6 November, and then increased again slightly to 2.5% on 7 November. By contrast, the average capacity factor for wind for the month of November was 24% over the period 2019-2023. Germany’s day-ahead prices surged after sunset, ranging between EUR 400/MWh and EUR 800/MWh during the hours of 17:00-18:00 over these three days. The neighbouring bidding zones in Denmark and the Netherlands also saw price spikes in the EUR 400-500/MWh range during the same hours.
When weather conditions such as wind droughts occur, they may impact multiple countries simultaneously. In both these events, the Dunkelflaute was not localised but occurred over a wider area. Similarly, the price surges that were observed happened when they would be most likely to occur. Our analysis based on publicly available data shows that the evening hours between 16:00-20:00 pm, when the price spikes occurred, were also among the hours in 2024 with particularly tight supply. Some of the highest residual load to available dispatchable capacity ratios were observed during these hours in 2024 – both in Germany and, on average, in neighbouring countries. In the countries Germany is interconnected with, wind power generation was on average 60% lower during 5-7 November compared to the same period the previous year and about 30% lower during 11-12 December. Hence, supply was particularly tight during these evening hours across the region due to similar weather conditions.
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IEA (2025), Electricity 2025, (Pages 57-58, A case study: Dunkelflaute events in Northern Europe on 5-7 November and 11-12 December 2024) IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2025, Licence: CC BY 4.0The recent Dunkelflaute occurrences in Northern Europe on 5-7 November and 11-12 December 2024 provide relevant case studies for understanding how well- interconnected markets with sufficient dispatchable capacity allow for a resilient system under the corresponding market price signals, even when such events affect a wider region.
Day-ahead electricity prices in Germany and parts of the Nordic countries exceeded EUR 900/MWh in a single hour on 12 December after sunset, although prices were already high during daytime, averaging around EUR 500/MWh between 07:00-15:00. Solar PV generation is typically lower during the winter season in Northern Europe, and this day was not particularly different. The solar PV capacity factor for the whole day was an estimated 0.7%, compared to the December average of 1% for the 2019-2023 period. By contrast, output from wind was substantially below its seasonal average and a temporary wind drought was observed. The average capacity factor of wind generation was 2% on this day, compared to the December average of 26% over the period 2019-2023. The day before, 11 December, had also recorded very low wind output at an average capacity factor of 3%, with prices exceeding EUR 400/MWh around 16:00-17:00.
A precursor to 12 December was on 5-7 November, when wind power generation in Germany and neighbouring countries was also very limited. The average capacity factor of wind generation in Germany was 6% on 5 November, fell to as low as 0.5% on 6 November, and then increased again slightly to 2.5% on 7 November. By contrast, the average capacity factor for wind for the month of November was 24% over the period 2019-2023. Germany’s day-ahead prices surged after sunset, ranging between EUR 400/MWh and EUR 800/MWh during the hours of 17:00-18:00 over these three days. The neighbouring bidding zones in Denmark and the Netherlands also saw price spikes in the EUR 400-500/MWh range during the same hours.
When weather conditions such as wind droughts occur, they may impact multiple countries simultaneously. In both these events, the Dunkelflaute was not localised but occurred over a wider area. Similarly, the price surges that were observed happened when they would be most likely to occur. Our analysis based on publicly available data shows that the evening hours between 16:00-20:00 pm, when the price spikes occurred, were also among the hours in 2024 with particularly tight supply. Some of the highest residual load to available dispatchable capacity ratios were observed during these hours in 2024 – both in Germany and, on average, in neighbouring countries. In the countries Germany is interconnected with, wind power generation was on average 60% lower during 5-7 November compared to the same period the previous year and about 30% lower during 11-12 December. Hence, supply was particularly tight during these evening hours across the region due to similar weather conditions.
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