Electricity Generation from Solar Could Exceed Coal in ERCOT for the First Time in 2026

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Electricity Generation from Solar Could Exceed Coal in ERCOT for the First Time in 2026

US Energy Information Administration US Energy Information Administration
7 hours ago



In our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that annual electric power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass that from coal for the first time in 2026 within the electricity grid that covers most of Texas. Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2026 in the electricity grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) compared with 60 BkWh for coal.



Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7d. Note: ERCOT=Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth. Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44% of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix has increased from 4% to 12% in those years, while coal’s share has decreased from 19% to 13%.

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