"What about Mondale?" indeed: 1976-1980

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1. incumbent primary challenge is correlated with losing the general, but

that doesn't mean the primary challenge is to blame.

more likely, it's a symptom, i.e., an early indicator that the incumbent party is going to lose the general.

quite simply, if the incumbent's first administration is going great and the economy is humming along nicely, then re-election is quite likely. because things are going well and because re-election is likely, there's little incentive for anyone in the party to launch a serious challenge.

conversely, if there are scandals and failures and the economy is in the dump, then the incumbent party is likely headed for defeat in november. this is precisely the environment that attracts challengers.


i think you have to go back to 1856 (james buchanan) to find an example of a someone beating the incumbent in the primary and going on to win the general.