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paleotn

(22,138 posts)
3. The pace of HYPE is intensifying. Not the actual usefulness....
Sat Feb 14, 2026, 01:46 PM
Feb 14

Seriously, AI has consumed 750 billion to perhaps one TRILLION dollars of capex funding through end of 2025......for what? You're making the fusion power argument. It's just months to years around the corner. Well, it's been months to years and .... where is it? OH! You want hundreds and hundreds of billions more? They're reaching the end of tech firm excess cash / venture capital and are having to tap debt markets to fuel the capex burn. Never, ever a good sign.

Useful tools eventually? Maybe. But at what cost (turning Texas into a ginormous server farm) and where the hell is the financial payoff? End of the day that's ALL that matters. THAT'S why people invest their money. To get their money back with a bit extra. Otherwise, what the hell is the point? What and where are the actual financial returns on all this capex??? Other than some vague huckster crap, they can't tell you. Do you realize the scale those returns would have to be on a nearly one trillion dollar investment to make it financially worthwhile and not the biggest waste of capital in human history?

Varies by industry, but in my real world, if I have a project with an ROI of less than 10% and a payback greater than 5 years, I would get laughed at. And that's on a measly $100K investment. Why is this different somehow? The AI industry can't even tell us with a straight face what those investment return projections actually are on the nearly a trillion dollars they already blown. It's madness.

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