The interpretation of the polling Re: Midterms [View all]
I follow polling closely. I understand some are biased and some are outliers. Democrats are not only overperforming the 2024 elections, but the polling itself. I contend that that's because of the strongly disapprove number vs. the strongly approve Trump numbers.
This portends very well for the midterms.
Rasmussen Reports (Jan. 12, 2026): 45% of likely U.S. voters "Strongly Disapprove" compared to 30% who "Strongly Approve".
Silver Bulletin average (late Dec. 2025/early Jan. 2026): Approximately 44.1% of Americans strongly disapprove, while 25.2% strongly approve.
Economist / YouGov Poll (Dec. 20-22, 2025): While general disapproval was 57%, 52% of those respondents indicated they strongly disapprove. In contrast, only 9% strongly approved (with another 10% somewhat approving).
Overall, Trump has a consistently high negative polarization, meaning those who dislike him tend to feel more intensely about it than those who support him. His net approval rating (approve minus disapprove) has generally been negative across most recent national polls, falling as low as -19 in some cases.
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