Hormuz was opening, and may be closing again. We must not return to business as usual

[nitpicked]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hormuz-was-opening-and-may-be-closing-again-we-must-not-return-to-business-as-usual/ar-AA26wRIe?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=6a3d483ba2c8447b8747ee86ffbd8269&ei=45

After nearly four months of grinding disruption since late February 2026, it looks like the Strait of Hormuz is slowly opening – commercial traffic is moving again. Yet anyone inclined to declare victory should pause. We have endured at least two false dawns and this could be another, with some ships turning back even as this is written.

Pre-war, the Strait saw 100-138 vessel transits daily. Last week, traceable traffic reached a total of 119 – a 270 per cent jump from the prior period, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Crossings nearly tripled in one week, from 32 vessels (June 12-14) to 93 (June 19-21).

Windward data show the Strait is busier than at any point since early March, with a new central corridor just to the south of the “old” Traffic Separation Scheme emerging alongside the northern (Iran-controlled) and southern (Oman/US-assisted) routes. Eleven thousand mariners, many stranded for months and often the unseen victims in these situations, are finally leaving the Gulf. Fewer are entering, for now, presumably for fear of re-escalation and then getting trapped.

Lloyd’s List notes that those moving first are, predictably, the vessels with the largest hull sections – the theory being that they are better placed to survive a mine strike that a smaller ship would not. That is a sobering way to measure confidence in a ceasefire.
(snip)